Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha — Czech Liga 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 7+ matches
Mlada Boleslav38%
Slavia Praha37%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 7 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Mlada Boleslav ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Mlada Boleslav at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.16 · 7 matches
Slavia Praha away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Mlada Boleslav attack 1.84 + Slavia Praha defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.45
Slavia Praha attack 1.67 + Mlada Boleslav defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.42
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Mlada Boleslav at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Mlada Boleslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Slavia Praha
Plzen
Sparta Praha
FK Jablonec
Slovan Liberec
Baník Ostrava
České Budějovice
Bohemians 1905
SlováckoMlada Boleslav
Sigma Olomouc
Teplice
Zlin
Karviná
Opava
PříbramIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Shots
Statistics
Mlada Boleslav host Slavia Praha on Sunday, 14 March 2021 at 17:30. The match is part of the Czech Liga 2019/2020 season.
Czech Liga: Mlada Boleslav 0–3 Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha beat Mlada Boleslav 3-0 in Czech Liga on March 14, 2021.
Goals: N. Stanciu (27', 40'), Abdulla Yusuf Helal (82' pen).
The match was played at Lokotrans Aréna in Mladá Boleslav.