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Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen — Czech Liga 2019

Mlada Boleslav
Mlada Boleslav
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Plzen
Plzen
12/6/2023Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 6Lokotrans Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Mlada Boleslav54%
×Draw22%
Plzen24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mlada Boleslav
1.99
Plzen
1.28

Mlada Boleslav creates 55% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Mlada Boleslav
1.84
Plzen
1.41

allows per match

Mlada Boleslav
1.16
Plzen
2.14

finishing

Mlada Boleslav-0.84scores less
Plzen+0.02on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mlada Boleslav ↓

Plzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Mlada Boleslav or draw
76%
Mlada Boleslav or Plzen
78%
Draw or Plzen
46%

Winning margin

Mlada Boleslav wins by 2+
31%
Plzen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mlada Boleslav 1+ goals
86%
Mlada Boleslav 2+ goals
59%
Mlada Boleslav 3+ goals
32%
Plzen 1+ goals
72%
Plzen 2+ goals
37%
Plzen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mlada Boleslav (draw refunded)
69%
Plzen (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mlada Boleslav at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.16 · 7 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mlada Boleslav attack 1.84 + Plzen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.99

Plzen attack 1.41 + Mlada Boleslav defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mlada Boleslav scores more
54%
level
22%
Plzen scores more
24%

Mlada Boleslav at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mlada Boleslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Mlada Boleslav 1–3 Plzen

Plzen beat Mlada Boleslav 3-1 in Czech Liga on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Lokotrans Aréna in Mladá Boleslav.