Mladá Boleslav U19 3–2 Zlín U19: Result & Stats

Mladá Boleslav U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Zlín U19

8/26/2023

1. Liga U19 · Round 49. Základní Škola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Mladá Boleslav U1946%

×Draw22%

Zlín U1932%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladá Boleslav U19Expected goals in this matchZlín U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.56

Mladá Boleslav U19

1.93

Zlín U19

1.56

Mladá Boleslav U19 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 79 away

1.97

creates per match

1.62

1.49

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Mladá Boleslav U19

1.97

Zlín U19

1.62

allows per match

Mladá Boleslav U19

1.49

Zlín U19

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladá Boleslav U19+0.00on par

Zlín U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladá Boleslav U19 ↓

Zlín U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Mladá Boleslav U19 or draw

68%

Mladá Boleslav U19 or Zlín U19

78%

Draw or Zlín U19

54%

Winning margin

Mladá Boleslav U19 wins by 2+

26%

Zlín U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mladá Boleslav U19 1+ goals

85%

Mladá Boleslav U19 2+ goals

57%

Mladá Boleslav U19 3+ goals

30%

Zlín U19 1+ goals

79%

Zlín U19 2+ goals

46%

Zlín U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Mladá Boleslav U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Zlín U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladá Boleslav U19 at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.49 · 78 matches

Zlín U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladá Boleslav U19 attack 1.97 + Zlín U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.93

Zlín U19 attack 1.62 + Mladá Boleslav U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mladá Boleslav U19 scores more

46%

level

22%

Zlín U19 scores more

32%

Mladá Boleslav U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mladá Boleslav U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladá Boleslav U19 vs Zlín U19

Mladá Boleslav U19 beat Zlín U19 3-2 in 1. Liga U19 on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at 9. Základní Škola in Mladá Boleslav.

Mladá Boleslav U19 vs Zlín U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Mladá Boleslav U19 vs Zlín U19