Mladá Boleslav U19 1–3 Vysočina Jihlava U19

Mladá Boleslav U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Vysočina Jihlava U19

9/9/2023

1. Liga U19 · Round 69. Základní Škola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Mladá Boleslav U1956%

×Draw21%

Vysočina Jihlava U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladá Boleslav U19Expected goals in this matchVysočina Jihlava U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.32

Mladá Boleslav U19

2.16

Vysočina Jihlava U19

1.32

Mladá Boleslav U19 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 60 away

1.97

creates per match

1.15

1.49

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Mladá Boleslav U19

1.97

Vysočina Jihlava U19

1.15

allows per match

Mladá Boleslav U19

1.49

Vysočina Jihlava U19

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladá Boleslav U19+0.00on par

Vysočina Jihlava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladá Boleslav U19 ↓

Vysočina Jihlava U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Mladá Boleslav U19 or draw

77%

Mladá Boleslav U19 or Vysočina Jihlava U19

79%

Draw or Vysočina Jihlava U19

44%

Winning margin

Mladá Boleslav U19 wins by 2+

34%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mladá Boleslav U19 1+ goals

88%

Mladá Boleslav U19 2+ goals

63%

Mladá Boleslav U19 3+ goals

36%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 1+ goals

73%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 2+ goals

38%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Mladá Boleslav U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladá Boleslav U19 at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.49 · 78 matches

Vysočina Jihlava U19 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.35 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladá Boleslav U19 attack 1.97 + Vysočina Jihlava U19 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.16

Vysočina Jihlava U19 attack 1.15 + Mladá Boleslav U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mladá Boleslav U19 scores more

56%

level

21%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 scores more

23%

Mladá Boleslav U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mladá Boleslav U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff