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Mladá Boleslav U19 vs Viktoria Plzeň U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Mladá Boleslav U19
Mladá Boleslav U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Viktoria Plzeň U19
Viktoria Plzeň U19
10/1/20221. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 99. Základní Škola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Mladá Boleslav U1944%
×Draw23%
Viktoria Plzeň U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladá Boleslav U19
1.79
Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.53

Mladá Boleslav U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 79 away

creates per match

Mladá Boleslav U19
1.97
Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.57

allows per match

Mladá Boleslav U19
1.49
Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.62

finishing

Mladá Boleslav U19+0.00on par
Viktoria Plzeň U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladá Boleslav U19 ↓

Viktoria Plzeň U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Mladá Boleslav U19 or draw
67%
Mladá Boleslav U19 or Viktoria Plzeň U19
77%
Draw or Viktoria Plzeň U19
56%

Winning margin

Mladá Boleslav U19 wins by 2+
23%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mladá Boleslav U19 1+ goals
83%
Mladá Boleslav U19 2+ goals
53%
Mladá Boleslav U19 3+ goals
26%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 1+ goals
78%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 2+ goals
45%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Mladá Boleslav U19 (draw refunded)
57%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladá Boleslav U19 at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.49 · 78 matches

Viktoria Plzeň U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.62 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladá Boleslav U19 attack 1.97 + Viktoria Plzeň U19 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.79

Viktoria Plzeň U19 attack 1.57 + Mladá Boleslav U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mladá Boleslav U19 scores more
44%
level
23%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 scores more
33%

Mladá Boleslav U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mladá Boleslav U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladá Boleslav U19 vs Viktoria Plzeň U19

Viktoria Plzeň U19 beat Mladá Boleslav U19 2-1 in 1. Liga U19 on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at 9. Základní Škola in Mladá Boleslav.