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Mladá Boleslav U19 vs Slovácko U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Mladá Boleslav U19
Mladá Boleslav U19
CANC
11:00
Slovácko U19
Slovácko U19
5/1/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 22Plocha č.2 Mladá Boleslav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Mladá Boleslav U1950%
×Draw22%
Slovácko U1928%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladá Boleslav U19
1.93
Slovácko U19
1.40

Mladá Boleslav U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 79 away

creates per match

Mladá Boleslav U19
1.97
Slovácko U19
1.30

allows per match

Mladá Boleslav U19
1.49
Slovácko U19
1.89

finishing

Mladá Boleslav U19+0.00on par
Slovácko U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladá Boleslav U19 ↓

Slovácko U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Mladá Boleslav U19 or draw
72%
Mladá Boleslav U19 or Slovácko U19
78%
Draw or Slovácko U19
50%

Winning margin

Mladá Boleslav U19 wins by 2+
28%
Slovácko U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mladá Boleslav U19 1+ goals
85%
Mladá Boleslav U19 2+ goals
57%
Mladá Boleslav U19 3+ goals
30%
Slovácko U19 1+ goals
75%
Slovácko U19 2+ goals
41%
Slovácko U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Mladá Boleslav U19 (draw refunded)
64%
Slovácko U19 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladá Boleslav U19 at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.49 · 78 matches

Slovácko U19 away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladá Boleslav U19 attack 1.97 + Slovácko U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.93

Slovácko U19 attack 1.30 + Mladá Boleslav U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mladá Boleslav U19 scores more
50%
level
22%
Slovácko U19 scores more
28%

Mladá Boleslav U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mladá Boleslav U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mladá Boleslav U19 vs Slovácko U19 — Match Preview

Mladá Boleslav U19 face Slovácko U19 on May 1, 2021 in this 1. Liga U19 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Mladá Boleslav U19 host Slovácko U19 at Plocha č.2 Mladá Boleslav.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.