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Mladá Boleslav U19 vs České Budějovice U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Mladá Boleslav U19
Mladá Boleslav U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
České Budějovice U19
České Budějovice U19
4/9/20221. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 209. Základní Škola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Mladá Boleslav U1948%
×Draw21%
České Budějovice U1931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladá Boleslav U19
2.06
České Budějovice U19
1.63

Mladá Boleslav U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 80 away

creates per match

Mladá Boleslav U19
1.97
České Budějovice U19
1.77

allows per match

Mladá Boleslav U19
1.49
České Budějovice U19
2.15

finishing

Mladá Boleslav U19+0.00on par
České Budějovice U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladá Boleslav U19 ↓

České Budějovice U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Mladá Boleslav U19 or draw
69%
Mladá Boleslav U19 or České Budějovice U19
79%
Draw or České Budějovice U19
52%

Winning margin

Mladá Boleslav U19 wins by 2+
27%
České Budějovice U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mladá Boleslav U19 1+ goals
87%
Mladá Boleslav U19 2+ goals
61%
Mladá Boleslav U19 3+ goals
34%
České Budějovice U19 1+ goals
80%
České Budějovice U19 2+ goals
48%
České Budějovice U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Mladá Boleslav U19 (draw refunded)
61%
České Budějovice U19 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladá Boleslav U19 at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.49 · 78 matches

České Budějovice U19 away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladá Boleslav U19 attack 1.97 + České Budějovice U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.06

České Budějovice U19 attack 1.77 + Mladá Boleslav U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mladá Boleslav U19 scores more
48%
level
21%
České Budějovice U19 scores more
31%

Mladá Boleslav U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mladá Boleslav U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladá Boleslav U19 vs České Budějovice U19

Mladá Boleslav U19 and České Budějovice U19 drew 2-2 in 1. Liga U19 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at 9. Základní Škola in Mladá Boleslav.