ML Vitebsk vs Slavia Mozyr: Preview & Prediction

ML Vitebsk

Preview

16:00

Slavia Mozyr

11/21/2026

Premier League · Round 29Vitebsk CSK

53%

ML Vitebsk

model favours

53%24%23%

82% of Slavia Mozyr’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

over 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

ML Vitebsk53%

×Draw24%

Slavia Mozyr23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ML VitebskExpected goals in this matchSlavia Mozyr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.02

ML Vitebsk

1.70

Slavia Mozyr

1.02

ML Vitebsk creates 67% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 112 away

1.91

creates per match

1.28

0.77

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

ML Vitebsk

1.91

Slavia Mozyr

1.28

allows per match

ML Vitebsk

0.77

Slavia Mozyr

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Slavia Mozyr+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ML Vitebsk ↓

Slavia Mozyr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

ML Vitebsk or draw

77%

ML Vitebsk or Slavia Mozyr

76%

Draw or Slavia Mozyr

47%

Winning margin

ML Vitebsk wins by 2+

29%

Slavia Mozyr wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

ML Vitebsk 1+ goals

82%

ML Vitebsk 2+ goals

51%

ML Vitebsk 3+ goals

24%

Slavia Mozyr 1+ goals

64%

Slavia Mozyr 2+ goals

27%

Slavia Mozyr 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)

70%

Slavia Mozyr (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ML Vitebsk at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.77 · 22 matches

Slavia Mozyr away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ML Vitebsk attack 1.91 + Slavia Mozyr defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.70

Slavia Mozyr attack 1.28 + ML Vitebsk defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

ML Vitebsk scores more

53%

level

24%

Slavia Mozyr scores more

23%

ML Vitebsk at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Slavia Mozyr score first in only 29% of matches
ML Vitebsk have won 3 of the last 4 meetings
Slavia Mozyr win just 19% against the top half (vs 45% against the bottom)
36% of ML Vitebsk’s goals come after the 75th minute
ML Vitebsk sit 2, Slavia Mozyr 12 in the table
Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.8 goals