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ML Vitebsk vs Arsenal — Premier League 2018

ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
Preview
15:00
Arsenal
Arsenal
9/19/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Vitebsk CSK
Big match
57%
ML Vitebsk
model favours
57%25%18%

Arsenal score first in only 26% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

ML Vitebsk57%
×Draw25%
Arsenal18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ML Vitebsk
1.64
Arsenal
0.81

ML Vitebsk creates 102% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 54 away

creates per match

ML Vitebsk
1.91
Arsenal
0.85

allows per match

ML Vitebsk
0.77
Arsenal
1.37

finishing

ML Vitebsk+0.00on par
Arsenal+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ML Vitebsk ↓

Arsenal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

ML Vitebsk or draw
82%
ML Vitebsk or Arsenal
75%
Draw or Arsenal
43%

Winning margin

ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
31%
Arsenal wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
81%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
49%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
23%
Arsenal 1+ goals
56%
Arsenal 2+ goals
19%
Arsenal 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
76%
Arsenal (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ML Vitebsk at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.77 · 22 matches

Arsenal away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.37 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ML Vitebsk attack 1.91 + Arsenal defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.64

Arsenal attack 0.85 + ML Vitebsk defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

ML Vitebsk scores more
57%
level
25%
Arsenal scores more
18%

ML Vitebsk at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 32% of Arsenal’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings
  • 36% of ML Vitebsk’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Their last 7 meetings averaged 4.1 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Vitebsk
LLWWD
Arsenal
LWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ML Vitebsk face Arsenal (Premier League)

Premier League returns with ML Vitebsk hosting Arsenal. Match starts September 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

ML Vitebsk host Arsenal at Vitebsk CSK.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.