ML Vitebsk 2–2 Arsenal: Result & Stats

ML Vitebsk

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Arsenal

7/9/2023

1. Division · Round 15CSK Vitebskiy Iskusstvennoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

ML Vitebsk41%

×Draw24%

Arsenal35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ML VitebskExpected goals in this matchArsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.42

ML Vitebsk

1.55

Arsenal

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

2.18

creates per match

1.73

1.11

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

ML Vitebsk

2.18

Arsenal

1.73

allows per match

ML Vitebsk

1.11

Arsenal

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Arsenal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ML Vitebsk ↓

Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

ML Vitebsk or draw

65%

ML Vitebsk or Arsenal

76%

Draw or Arsenal

59%

Winning margin

ML Vitebsk wins by 2+

20%

Arsenal wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

ML Vitebsk 1+ goals

79%

ML Vitebsk 2+ goals

46%

ML Vitebsk 3+ goals

20%

Arsenal 1+ goals

76%

Arsenal 2+ goals

41%

Arsenal 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)

54%

Arsenal (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ML Vitebsk at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ML Vitebsk attack 2.18 + Arsenal defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.55

Arsenal attack 1.73 + ML Vitebsk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

ML Vitebsk scores more

41%

level

24%

Arsenal scores more

35%

ML Vitebsk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff