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Mjondalen vs Notodden — 2. Division - Group 1 2026

Mjondalen
Mjondalen
Preview
13:00
Notodden
Notodden
8/1/20262. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Round 14Consto Arena
Big match
65%
Mjondalen
model favours
65%19%16%

Notodden score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mjondalen65%
×Draw19%
Notodden16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjondalen
2.27
Notodden
1.05

Mjondalen creates 116% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 58 away

creates per match

Mjondalen
2.67
Notodden
1.28

allows per match

Mjondalen
0.83
Notodden
1.86

finishing

Mjondalen+0.00on par
Notodden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjondalen ↓

Notodden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Mjondalen or draw
84%
Mjondalen or Notodden
81%
Draw or Notodden
35%

Winning margin

Mjondalen wins by 2+
42%
Notodden wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mjondalen 1+ goals
90%
Mjondalen 2+ goals
66%
Mjondalen 3+ goals
39%
Notodden 1+ goals
65%
Notodden 2+ goals
28%
Notodden 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mjondalen (draw refunded)
80%
Notodden (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjondalen at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Notodden away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.86 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjondalen attack 2.67 + Notodden defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.27

Notodden attack 1.28 + Mjondalen defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Mjondalen scores more
65%
level
19%
Notodden scores more
16%

Mjondalen at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Mjondalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Mjondalen have won 5 of the last 6 meetings
  • 67% of Notodden’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Mjondalen
WWDLW
Notodden
WLWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mjondalen host Notodden

August 1, 2026: Mjondalen take on Notodden in 2. Division - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mjondalen host Notodden at Consto Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.