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Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Malmo FF
Malmo FFadvanced
7/9/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Mjallby AIF26%
×Draw23%
Malmo FF51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjallby AIF
1.28
Malmo FF
1.87

Malmo FF creates 46% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 14 away

creates per match

Mjallby AIF
2.00
Malmo FF
2.93

allows per match

Mjallby AIF
0.81
Malmo FF
0.57

finishing

Mjallby AIF+0.00on par
Malmo FF+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

Malmo FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw
49%
Mjallby AIF or Malmo FF
77%
Draw or Malmo FF
74%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
11%
Malmo FF wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
72%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
37%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
14%
Malmo FF 1+ goals
85%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
56%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
34%
Malmo FF (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 2.93, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 2.00 + Malmo FF defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.28

Malmo FF attack 2.93 + Mjallby AIF defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more
26%
level
23%
Malmo FF scores more
51%

Malmo FF at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF

Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF drew 0-0 in Svenska Cupen on July 9, 2020.