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Mixco vs Suchitepéquez — Liga Nacional 2019

Mixco
Mixco
Preview
21:00
Suchitepéquez
Suchitepéquez
8/1/2026Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Round 2
51%
Mixco
model favours
51%23%26%

Mixco and Suchitepéquez have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mixco51%
×Draw23%
Suchitepéquez26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mixco
1.83
Suchitepéquez
1.23

Mixco creates 49% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 3 away

creates per match

Mixco
1.32
Suchitepéquez
1.67

allows per match

Mixco
0.78
Suchitepéquez
2.33

finishing

Mixco+0.00on par
Suchitepéquez+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mixco ↓

Suchitepéquez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Mixco or draw
74%
Mixco or Suchitepéquez
77%
Draw or Suchitepéquez
49%

Winning margin

Mixco wins by 2+
29%
Suchitepéquez wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mixco 1+ goals
84%
Mixco 2+ goals
54%
Mixco 3+ goals
28%
Suchitepéquez 1+ goals
71%
Suchitepéquez 2+ goals
35%
Suchitepéquez 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mixco (draw refunded)
67%
Suchitepéquez (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mixco at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.78 · 105 matches

Suchitepéquez away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mixco attack 1.32 + Suchitepéquez defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Suchitepéquez attack 1.67 + Mixco defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mixco scores more
51%
level
23%
Suchitepéquez scores more
26%

Mixco at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mixco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Mixco
LLWLL
Suchitepéquez
LDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mixco face Suchitepéquez (Liga Nacional)

Liga Nacional returns with Mixco hosting Suchitepéquez. Match starts August 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.