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Mixco vs Achuapa — Liga Nacional 2019

Mixco
Mixco
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Achuapa
Achuapa
2/10/2024Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 5Estadio Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Mixco56%
×Draw26%
Achuapa18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mixco
1.54
Achuapa
0.74

Mixco creates 108% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 122 away

creates per match

Mixco
1.32
Achuapa
0.70

allows per match

Mixco
0.78
Achuapa
1.75

finishing

Mixco+0.00on par
Achuapa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mixco ↓

Achuapa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mixco or draw
82%
Mixco or Achuapa
74%
Draw or Achuapa
44%

Winning margin

Mixco wins by 2+
30%
Achuapa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mixco 1+ goals
79%
Mixco 2+ goals
45%
Mixco 3+ goals
20%
Achuapa 1+ goals
52%
Achuapa 2+ goals
17%
Achuapa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mixco (draw refunded)
76%
Achuapa (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mixco at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.78 · 105 matches

Achuapa away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.75 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mixco attack 1.32 + Achuapa defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Achuapa attack 0.70 + Mixco defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mixco scores more
56%
level
26%
Achuapa scores more
18%

Mixco at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mixco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mixco 1 – 0 Achuapa

Mixco beat Achuapa 1-0 in Liga Nacional on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Santo Domingo in Mixco.