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Mitundu Baptist vs Nyasa Big Bullets — Super League 2026

Mitundu Baptist
Mitundu Baptist
Preview
12:30
Nyasa Big Bullets
Nyasa Big Bullets
9/12/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14
36%
Nyasa Big Bullets
model favours
34%31%36%

Mitundu Baptist and Nyasa Big Bullets have never met before

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
68%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mitundu Baptist34%
×Draw31%
Nyasa Big Bullets36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mitundu Baptist
0.98
Nyasa Big Bullets
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 79 away

creates per match

Mitundu Baptist
1.40
Nyasa Big Bullets
1.23

allows per match

Mitundu Baptist
0.80
Nyasa Big Bullets
0.57

finishing

Mitundu Baptist+0.00on par
Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mitundu Baptist ↓

Nyasa Big Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mitundu Baptist or draw
64%
Mitundu Baptist or Nyasa Big Bullets
69%
Draw or Nyasa Big Bullets
66%

Winning margin

Mitundu Baptist wins by 2+
12%
Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mitundu Baptist 1+ goals
62%
Mitundu Baptist 2+ goals
26%
Mitundu Baptist 3+ goals
8%
Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals
64%
Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals
27%
Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mitundu Baptist (draw refunded)
48%
Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mitundu Baptist at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Nyasa Big Bullets away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.57 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mitundu Baptist attack 1.40 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.98

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 1.23 + Mitundu Baptist defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Mitundu Baptist scores more
34%
level
31%
Nyasa Big Bullets scores more
36%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Baptist
DWLWL
Bullets
WWWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mitundu Baptist host Nyasa Big Bullets

September 12, 2026: Mitundu Baptist take on Nyasa Big Bullets in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.