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Mitundu Baptist vs Moyale Barracks — Super League 2026

Mitundu Baptist
Mitundu Baptist
Preview
12:30
Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
12/5/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 22
52%
Mitundu Baptist
model favours
52%27%22%

90% of Moyale Barracks’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mitundu Baptist52%
×Draw27%
Moyale Barracks22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mitundu Baptist
1.45
Moyale Barracks
0.83

Mitundu Baptist creates 75% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 84 away

creates per match

Mitundu Baptist
1.40
Moyale Barracks
0.86

allows per match

Mitundu Baptist
0.80
Moyale Barracks
1.50

finishing

Mitundu Baptist+0.00on par
Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mitundu Baptist ↓

Moyale Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mitundu Baptist or draw
78%
Mitundu Baptist or Moyale Barracks
73%
Draw or Moyale Barracks
48%

Winning margin

Mitundu Baptist wins by 2+
26%
Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mitundu Baptist 1+ goals
77%
Mitundu Baptist 2+ goals
42%
Mitundu Baptist 3+ goals
18%
Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
56%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
20%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mitundu Baptist (draw refunded)
71%
Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mitundu Baptist at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Moyale Barracks away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mitundu Baptist attack 1.40 + Moyale Barracks defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Moyale Barracks attack 0.86 + Mitundu Baptist defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mitundu Baptist scores more
52%
level
27%
Moyale Barracks scores more
22%

Mitundu Baptist at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mitundu Baptist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 10% of Moyale Barracks’s matches
  • Moyale Barracks score first in only 30% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Baptist
DWLWL
Barracks
LDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mitundu Baptist face Moyale Barracks (Super League)

Super League returns with Mitundu Baptist hosting Moyale Barracks. Match starts December 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.