Mitundu Baptist vs Karonga United

Mitundu Baptist

Preview

12:30

Karonga United

8/22/2026

Super League · Round 12

52%

Mitundu Baptist

model favours

52%27%21%

Mitundu Baptist and Karonga United have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

62%

under 2.5 goals

41%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mitundu Baptist52%

×Draw27%

Karonga United21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mitundu BaptistExpected goals in this matchKaronga United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.79

Mitundu Baptist

1.42

Karonga United

0.79

Mitundu Baptist creates 80% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 82 away

1.40

creates per match

0.78

0.80

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Mitundu Baptist

1.40

Karonga United

0.78

allows per match

Mitundu Baptist

0.80

Karonga United

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mitundu Baptist+0.00on par

Karonga United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mitundu Baptist ↓

Karonga United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mitundu Baptist or draw

79%

Mitundu Baptist or Karonga United

73%

Draw or Karonga United

48%

Winning margin

Mitundu Baptist wins by 2+

26%

Karonga United wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Mitundu Baptist 1+ goals

76%

Mitundu Baptist 2+ goals

41%

Mitundu Baptist 3+ goals

17%

Karonga United 1+ goals

55%

Karonga United 2+ goals

19%

Karonga United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Mitundu Baptist (draw refunded)

71%

Karonga United (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mitundu Baptist at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Karonga United away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mitundu Baptist attack 1.40 + Karonga United defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Karonga United attack 0.78 + Mitundu Baptist defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mitundu Baptist scores more

52%

level

27%

Karonga United scores more

21%

Mitundu Baptist at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mitundu Baptist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Baptist

DWLW

United

LDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff