Mitundu Baptist vs Dedza Dynamos

Mitundu Baptist

Preview

12:30

Dedza Dynamos

2/20/2027

Super League · Round 30

55%

Mitundu Baptist

model favours

55%26%19%

Mitundu Baptist and Dedza Dynamos have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

59%

under 2.5 goals

43%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mitundu Baptist55%

×Draw26%

Dedza Dynamos19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mitundu BaptistExpected goals in this matchDedza Dynamos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.79

Mitundu Baptist

1.54

Dedza Dynamos

0.79

Mitundu Baptist creates 95% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 65 away

1.40

creates per match

0.78

0.80

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Mitundu Baptist

1.40

Dedza Dynamos

0.78

allows per match

Mitundu Baptist

0.80

Dedza Dynamos

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mitundu Baptist+0.00on par

Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mitundu Baptist ↓

Dedza Dynamos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mitundu Baptist or draw

81%

Mitundu Baptist or Dedza Dynamos

74%

Draw or Dedza Dynamos

45%

Winning margin

Mitundu Baptist wins by 2+

29%

Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Mitundu Baptist 1+ goals

79%

Mitundu Baptist 2+ goals

45%

Mitundu Baptist 3+ goals

20%

Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals

55%

Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals

19%

Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Mitundu Baptist (draw refunded)

74%

Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mitundu Baptist at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Dedza Dynamos away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.69 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mitundu Baptist attack 1.40 + Dedza Dynamos defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.54

Dedza Dynamos attack 0.78 + Mitundu Baptist defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mitundu Baptist scores more

55%

level

26%

Dedza Dynamos scores more

19%

Mitundu Baptist at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mitundu Baptist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Baptist

DWLWL

Dynamos

WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff