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Mito Hollyhock vs Kyoto Sanga — J1 League 2018

Mito Hollyhock
Mito Hollyhock
Preview
10:00
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
4/17/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 30Best Denki Stadium
Big match
43%
Kyoto Sanga
model favours
30%27%43%

Mito Hollyhock score first in only 5% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mito Hollyhock30%
×Draw27%
Kyoto Sanga43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mito Hollyhock
1.07
Kyoto Sanga
1.33

Kyoto Sanga creates 24% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 80 away

creates per match

Mito Hollyhock
0.83
Kyoto Sanga
1.16

allows per match

Mito Hollyhock
1.50
Kyoto Sanga
1.32

finishing

Mito Hollyhock+0.00on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mito Hollyhock ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mito Hollyhock or draw
57%
Mito Hollyhock or Kyoto Sanga
73%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
70%

Winning margin

Mito Hollyhock wins by 2+
12%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals
66%
Mito Hollyhock 2+ goals
29%
Mito Hollyhock 3+ goals
9%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
74%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
38%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Mito Hollyhock (draw refunded)
41%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mito Hollyhock at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mito Hollyhock attack 0.83 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.07

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.16 + Mito Hollyhock defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mito Hollyhock scores more
30%
level
27%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
43%

Kyoto Sanga at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Kyoto Sanga score first in only 27% of matches
  • 73% of Kyoto Sanga’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Mito Hollyhock
Balanced
Kyoto Sanga
Balanced
54%Possession51%
81%Pass accuracy71%
11.1Shots12.8
0.83xGBiggest gap1.13
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Mito HollyhockKyoto Sanga

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

3
Mito Hollyhock
2
Draws
3
Kyoto Sanga
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 50%
0–20–12–12–23–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Hollyhock
LLLLL
Sanga
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mito Hollyhock host Kyoto Sanga

April 17, 2027: Mito Hollyhock take on Kyoto Sanga in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mito Hollyhock host Kyoto Sanga at Best Denki Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.