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Mito Hollyhock vs Kyoto Sanga — J2 League 2018

Mito Hollyhock
Mito Hollyhock
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
4/28/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 11K's denki Stadium Mito (Mito)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Mito Hollyhock39%
×Draw27%
Kyoto Sanga33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mito Hollyhock
1.29
Kyoto Sanga
1.16

Mito Hollyhock creates 11% more chances

Season form · 168 home / 89 away

creates per match

Mito Hollyhock
1.36
Kyoto Sanga
1.19

allows per match

Mito Hollyhock
1.13
Kyoto Sanga
1.21

finishing

Mito Hollyhock+0.00on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mito Hollyhock ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mito Hollyhock or draw
67%
Mito Hollyhock or Kyoto Sanga
73%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
61%

Winning margin

Mito Hollyhock wins by 2+
18%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals
72%
Mito Hollyhock 2+ goals
37%
Mito Hollyhock 3+ goals
14%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
69%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
32%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mito Hollyhock (draw refunded)
54%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mito Hollyhock at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.13 · 168 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.21 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mito Hollyhock attack 1.36 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.19 + Mito Hollyhock defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mito Hollyhock scores more
39%
level
27%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
33%

Mito Hollyhock at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mito Hollyhock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mito Hollyhock vs Kyoto Sanga

Kyoto Sanga beat Mito Hollyhock 2-1 in J2 League on April 28, 2018.

The match was played at K's denki Stadium Mito (Mito).