Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mitchelton vs SC Wanderers — Queensland Premier League 2026

Mitchelton
Mitchelton
FT
3 – 0
SC Wanderers
SC Wanderers
5/4/2021Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 6Teralba Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Mitchelton32%
×Draw21%
SC Wanderers46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mitchelton
1.68
SC Wanderers
2.04

SC Wanderers creates 21% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 40 away

creates per match

Mitchelton
1.73
SC Wanderers
1.50

allows per match

Mitchelton
2.59
SC Wanderers
1.63

finishing

Mitchelton+0.00on par
SC Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mitchelton ↓

SC Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Mitchelton or draw
54%
Mitchelton or SC Wanderers
79%
Draw or SC Wanderers
68%

Winning margin

Mitchelton wins by 2+
16%
SC Wanderers wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Mitchelton 1+ goals
81%
Mitchelton 2+ goals
50%
Mitchelton 3+ goals
24%
SC Wanderers 1+ goals
87%
SC Wanderers 2+ goals
60%
SC Wanderers 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Mitchelton (draw refunded)
41%
SC Wanderers (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mitchelton at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.59 · 41 matches

SC Wanderers away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.63 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mitchelton attack 1.73 + SC Wanderers defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.68

SC Wanderers attack 1.50 + Mitchelton defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mitchelton scores more
32%
level
21%
SC Wanderers scores more
46%

SC Wanderers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SC Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mitchelton vs SC Wanderers

Mitchelton beat SC Wanderers 3-0 in Queensland Premier League on May 4, 2021.

The match was played at Teralba Park in Mitchelton.