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Misr El Makasa vs Al Ahly — Premier League 2018

Misr El Makasa
Misr El Makasa
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Al Ahly
Al Ahly
1/24/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Borg El Arab Stadium (Borg El Arab)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Misr El Makasa20%
×Draw26%
Al Ahly54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Misr El Makasa
0.82
Al Ahly
1.53

Al Ahly creates 87% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 128 away

creates per match

Misr El Makasa
0.94
Al Ahly
1.78

allows per match

Misr El Makasa
1.28
Al Ahly
0.71

finishing

Misr El Makasa+0.00on par
Al Ahly+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Misr El Makasa ↓

Al Ahly →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Misr El Makasa or draw
46%
Misr El Makasa or Al Ahly
74%
Draw or Al Ahly
80%

Winning margin

Misr El Makasa wins by 2+
6%
Al Ahly wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Misr El Makasa 1+ goals
56%
Misr El Makasa 2+ goals
20%
Misr El Makasa 3+ goals
5%
Al Ahly 1+ goals
78%
Al Ahly 2+ goals
45%
Al Ahly 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Misr El Makasa (draw refunded)
27%
Al Ahly (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Misr El Makasa at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

Al Ahly away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.71 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Misr El Makasa attack 0.94 + Al Ahly defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.82

Al Ahly attack 1.78 + Misr El Makasa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Misr El Makasa scores more
20%
level
26%
Al Ahly scores more
54%

Al Ahly at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Al Ahly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Misr El Makasa 0 – 3 Al Ahly

Al Ahly beat Misr El Makasa 3-0 in Premier League on January 24, 2019.

The match was played at Borg El Arab Stadium (Borg El Arab).