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Mirassol U20 vs Ponte Preta U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Mirassol U20
Mirassol U20
Preview
18:00
Ponte Preta U20
Ponte Preta U20
9/4/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 14
47%
Mirassol U20
model favours
47%25%27%

67% of Mirassol U20’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Mirassol U2047%
×Draw25%
Ponte Preta U2027%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirassol U20
1.54
Ponte Preta U20
1.11

Mirassol U20 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 20 away

creates per match

Mirassol U20
1.74
Ponte Preta U20
1.35

allows per match

Mirassol U20
0.87
Ponte Preta U20
1.35

finishing

Mirassol U20+0.00on par
Ponte Preta U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 51Over: 4951%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirassol U20 ↓

Ponte Preta U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mirassol U20 or draw
73%
Mirassol U20 or Ponte Preta U20
75%
Draw or Ponte Preta U20
53%

Winning margin

Mirassol U20 wins by 2+
24%
Ponte Preta U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mirassol U20 1+ goals
79%
Mirassol U20 2+ goals
45%
Mirassol U20 3+ goals
20%
Ponte Preta U20 1+ goals
67%
Ponte Preta U20 2+ goals
30%
Ponte Preta U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mirassol U20 (draw refunded)
63%
Ponte Preta U20 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirassol U20 at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Ponte Preta U20 away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirassol U20 attack 1.74 + Ponte Preta U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ponte Preta U20 attack 1.35 + Mirassol U20 defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mirassol U20 scores more
47%
level
25%
Ponte Preta U20 scores more
27%

Mirassol U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mirassol U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
DDDLL
U20
WLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mirassol U20 face Ponte Preta U20 (Paulista - U20)

Paulista - U20 returns with Mirassol U20 hosting Ponte Preta U20. Match starts September 4, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.