Mirassol U20 vs Itapirense U20

Mirassol U20

Preview

18:00

Itapirense U20

8/7/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 10

62%

Mirassol U20

model favours

62%20%17%

67% of Mirassol U20’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

2–0

likely score

60%

over 2.5 goals

55%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mirassol U2062%

×Draw20%

Itapirense U2017%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mirassol U20Expected goals in this matchItapirense U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.00

Mirassol U20

2.10

Itapirense U20

1.00

Mirassol U20 creates 110% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 17 away

1.74

creates per match

1.12

0.87

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Mirassol U20

1.74

Itapirense U20

1.12

allows per match

Mirassol U20

0.87

Itapirense U20

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirassol U20+0.00on par

Itapirense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirassol U20 ↓

Itapirense U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Mirassol U20 or draw

83%

Mirassol U20 or Itapirense U20

80%

Draw or Itapirense U20

38%

Winning margin

Mirassol U20 wins by 2+

39%

Itapirense U20 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Mirassol U20 1+ goals

88%

Mirassol U20 2+ goals

62%

Mirassol U20 3+ goals

35%

Itapirense U20 1+ goals

63%

Itapirense U20 2+ goals

26%

Itapirense U20 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mirassol U20 (draw refunded)

78%

Itapirense U20 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirassol U20 at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Itapirense U20 away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirassol U20 attack 1.74 + Itapirense U20 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.10

Itapirense U20 attack 1.12 + Mirassol U20 defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Mirassol U20 scores more

62%

level

20%

Itapirense U20 scores more

17%

Mirassol U20 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Mirassol U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

U20

DDDLL

U20

WLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff