Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mirassol U20 vs Ferroviária U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Mirassol U20
Mirassol U20
Preview
18:00
Ferroviária U20
Ferroviária U20
7/26/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 8
40%
Mirassol U20
model favours
40%26%34%

67% of Mirassol U20’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Mirassol U2040%
×Draw26%
Ferroviária U2034%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirassol U20
1.42
Ferroviária U20
1.28

Mirassol U20 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

Mirassol U20
1.74
Ferroviária U20
1.70

allows per match

Mirassol U20
0.87
Ferroviária U20
1.09

finishing

Mirassol U20+0.00on par
Ferroviária U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirassol U20 ↓

Ferroviária U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mirassol U20 or draw
66%
Mirassol U20 or Ferroviária U20
74%
Draw or Ferroviária U20
60%

Winning margin

Mirassol U20 wins by 2+
19%
Ferroviária U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mirassol U20 1+ goals
76%
Mirassol U20 2+ goals
41%
Mirassol U20 3+ goals
17%
Ferroviária U20 1+ goals
72%
Ferroviária U20 2+ goals
37%
Ferroviária U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mirassol U20 (draw refunded)
54%
Ferroviária U20 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirassol U20 at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Ferroviária U20 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirassol U20 attack 1.74 + Ferroviária U20 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.42

Ferroviária U20 attack 1.70 + Mirassol U20 defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mirassol U20 scores more
40%
level
26%
Ferroviária U20 scores more
34%

Mirassol U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mirassol U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Mirassol U20 sit 32, Ferroviária U20 13 in the table
  • Their last 3 meetings averaged 4.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
DDDLL
U20
LWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mirassol U20 face Ferroviária U20 (Paulista - U20)

Paulista - U20 returns with Mirassol U20 hosting Ferroviária U20. Match starts July 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.