Mirandes 1–1 Zaragoza: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Zaragoza

Matheus Barrozo 48'

J. Igbekeme 36'

2/19/2020

Segunda División · Round 24Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 150+ matches

Mirandes43%

×Draw27%

Zaragoza29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchZaragoza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.06

Mirandes

1.35

Zaragoza

1.06

Mirandes creates 27% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 172 away

1.42

creates per match

1.01

1.11

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Mirandes

1.42

Zaragoza

1.01

allows per match

Mirandes

1.11

Zaragoza

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par

Zaragoza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Zaragoza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

71%

Mirandes or Zaragoza

73%

Draw or Zaragoza

57%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

20%

Zaragoza wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

74%

Mirandes 2+ goals

39%

Mirandes 3+ goals

15%

Zaragoza 1+ goals

65%

Zaragoza 2+ goals

29%

Zaragoza 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

60%

Zaragoza (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 150 matches

Zaragoza away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.29 · 172 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + Zaragoza defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Zaragoza attack 1.01 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mirandes scores more

43%

level

27%

Zaragoza scores more

29%

Mirandes at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

J. Igbekeme

Zaragoza · M

7.9

Match Events

27'

Javi Puado

36'

J. Igbekeme↳ Javi Puado

42'

Carlos Vigaray

43'

Alexander González

46'

Iñigo Vicente← L. Crisetig

48'

Matheus Barrozo↳ Iñigo Vicente

55'

Kijera

66'

Enric Franquesa← Joaquín Muñoz

75'

Antonio Sánchez

76'

Álex Blanco← Alberto Soro

77'

79'

81'

83'

84'

Miguel Linares← Burgui

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesZaragoza

Overview

45%Possession55%

5Total Shots16

2Corners5

15Fouls10

Shots

5Total Shots16

2On Target2

2Off Target10

1Blocked4

1Inside Box10

4Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

424Total Passes482

321Accurate Passes383

76%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls10

5Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Zaragoza

Mirandes and Zaragoza drew 1-1 in Segunda División on February 19, 2020.

Goals: J. Igbekeme (36'), Matheus Barrozo (48').

Zaragoza controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Anduva in Miranda de Ebro.

Mirandes vs Zaragoza — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Zaragoza