Mirandes 1–0 Tenerife: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tenerife

César Gelabert 71'

11/2/2022

Segunda División · Round 14Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 150+ matches

Mirandes45%

×Draw28%

Tenerife28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchTenerife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.98

Mirandes

1.33

Tenerife

0.98

Mirandes creates 36% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 155 away

1.42

creates per match

0.84

1.11

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Mirandes

1.42

Tenerife

0.84

allows per match

Mirandes

1.11

Tenerife

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par

Tenerife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Tenerife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

72%

Mirandes or Tenerife

72%

Draw or Tenerife

55%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

21%

Tenerife wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

74%

Mirandes 2+ goals

38%

Mirandes 3+ goals

15%

Tenerife 1+ goals

62%

Tenerife 2+ goals

26%

Tenerife 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

62%

Tenerife (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 150 matches

Tenerife away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.25 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + Tenerife defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tenerife attack 0.84 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mirandes scores more

45%

level

28%

Tenerife scores more

28%

Mirandes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

César Gelabert

Mirandes · M

7.7

Match Events

15'

Aitor Sanz

46'

Pablo Larrea← Aitor Sanz

59'

Aitor Buñuel

61'

M. Dauda← A. Appiah

63'

César Gelabert← S. Mráz

69'

Borja Garcés← Enric Gallego

69'

José León← Sergio González

71'

César Gelabert↳ Beñat Prados

73'

Manu García← Beñat Prados

74'

Manu García

76'

Teto

79'

Sergio Santos← Raúl Parra

84'

Alassán← Javi Alonso

90'

Nikola Šipčić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesTenerife

Overview

54%Possession46%

7Total Shots11

5Corners3

17Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots11

2On Target1

3Off Target7

2Blocked3

2Inside Box7

5Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

401Total Passes343

323Accurate Passes254

81%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls13

1Yellow Cards4

0Offsides4