Mirandes 0–1 Levante: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Levante

Joni Montiel 42' (pen)

10/13/2022

Segunda División · Round 10Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Mirandes38%

×Draw29%

Levante33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchLevante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.07

Mirandes

1.18

Levante

1.07

Mirandes creates 10% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 67 away

1.42

creates per match

1.03

1.11

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Mirandes

1.42

Levante

1.03

allows per match

Mirandes

1.11

Levante

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par

Levante+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Levante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

67%

Mirandes or Levante

71%

Draw or Levante

62%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

16%

Levante wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

69%

Mirandes 2+ goals

33%

Mirandes 3+ goals

12%

Levante 1+ goals

66%

Levante 2+ goals

29%

Levante 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

54%

Levante (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 149 matches

Levante away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.93 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + Levante defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.18

Levante attack 1.03 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mirandes scores more

38%

level

29%

Levante scores more

33%

Mirandes at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Dani Cárdenas

Levante · G

8.5

Match Events

42'

Joni MontielPenalty

46'

Manu García

49'

Raúl García

50'

Raúl Navas

60'

Beñat Prados← Manu García

61'

Óscar Pinchi← Juanlu Sánchez

61'

Roberto López← Nico Serrano

66'

Oriol Rey← Javi Serrano

70'

Cantero← Brugui

70'

Enric Franquesa← M. Saracchi

73'

Dani Cárdenas

77'

Álex Muñoz

78'

C. Musonda← Joni Montiel

84'

Iborra← Pablo Martínez

84'

Soldado← Wesley Moraes

87'

S. Mráz← Marcos Paulo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesLevante

Overview

51%Possession49%

24Total Shots12

6Corners5

14Fouls14

Shots

24Total Shots12

8On Target5

7Off Target3

9Blocked4

11Inside Box5

13Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

432Total Passes428

366Accurate Passes335

85%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves7

Discipline

14Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0