Mirandes 1–1 Huesca: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Huesca

José Salinas 70'

A. Rațiu 90+2'

10/22/2022

Segunda División · Round 12Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Mirandes41%

×Draw24%

Huesca35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchHuesca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.48

Mirandes

1.63

Huesca

1.48

Mirandes creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.23

creates per match

1.54

1.43

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Mirandes

1.23

Huesca

1.54

allows per match

Mirandes

1.43

Huesca

2.03

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Mirandes+0.15scores more

Huesca-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Huesca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

65%

Mirandes or Huesca

76%

Draw or Huesca

59%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

21%

Huesca wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

80%

Mirandes 2+ goals

48%

Mirandes 3+ goals

22%

Huesca 1+ goals

77%

Huesca 2+ goals

43%

Huesca 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

54%

Huesca (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 8 matches

Huesca away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.03 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.23 + Huesca defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.63

Huesca attack 1.54 + Mirandes defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mirandes scores more

41%

level

24%

Huesca scores more

35%

Mirandes at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Andrés Fernández

Huesca · G

7.9

Match Events

13'

21'

24'

63'

70'

72'

Pablo Tomeo← José Carrillo

72'

A. Kanté← Cristian Salvador

72'

Dani Escriche← Gerard Valentín

73'

Alejandro Barbudo Barbu

74'

Manu García← Beñat Prados

79'

Marcos Paulo← Óscar Pinchi

79'

Roberto López← Nico Serrano

82'

Juan Villar← Ignasi Vilarrasa

90'

Javi Serrano← Raúl García

90'

S. Mráz← Oriol Rey

90+2'

A. Rațiu↳ Marc Mateu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesHuesca

Overview

48%Possession52%

13Total Shots7

6Corners5

12Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots7

7On Target3

4Off Target1

2Blocked3

7Inside Box4

6Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

323Total Passes358

241Accurate Passes272

75%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2

Segunda División: Mirandes 1–1 Huesca

Mirandes and Huesca drew 1-1 in Segunda División on October 22, 2022.

Goals: José Salinas (70'), A. Rațiu (90+2').

Huesca controlled possession (52%) and registered 7 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Anduva in Miranda de Ebro.

Mirandes vs Huesca — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Mirandes 1–1 Huesca