Mirandes 0–1 Huesca: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Huesca

Marc Mateu 68'

11/13/2021

Segunda División · Round 16Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Mirandes41%

×Draw24%

Huesca35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchHuesca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.48

Mirandes

1.63

Huesca

1.48

Mirandes creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.23

creates per match

1.54

1.43

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Mirandes

1.23

Huesca

1.54

allows per match

Mirandes

1.43

Huesca

2.03

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Mirandes+0.15scores more

Huesca-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Huesca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

65%

Mirandes or Huesca

76%

Draw or Huesca

59%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

21%

Huesca wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

80%

Mirandes 2+ goals

48%

Mirandes 3+ goals

22%

Huesca 1+ goals

77%

Huesca 2+ goals

43%

Huesca 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

54%

Huesca (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 8 matches

Huesca away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.03 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.23 + Huesca defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.63

Huesca attack 1.54 + Mirandes defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mirandes scores more

41%

level

24%

Huesca scores more

35%

Mirandes at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Andrés Fernández

Huesca · G

7.9

Match Events

8'

Imanol García de Albéniz

20'

Julio Buffarini

42'

Riccardo Capellini

57'

Juan Carlos← David Ferreiro

57'

Mikel Rico← Cristian Salvador

68'

Marc Mateu↳ A. Gaich

71'

César Gelabert← Alejandro Marqués

72'

Iñigo Vicente← Brugui

72'

H. Hassan← Álex López

74'

Dani Escriche← J. Buffarini

74'

A. Rațiu← A. Gaich

83'

Ignasi Miquel

84'

Marcos Olguín← Oriol Rey

85'

K. Nwakali← Marc Mateu

87'

Rementeria← Rodrigo Riquelme

89'

Kelechi Nwakali

90+1'

Andrés Fernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesHuesca

Overview

53%Possession47%

15Total Shots14

5Corners5

5Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots14

4On Target4

7Off Target8

4Blocked2

9Inside Box8

6Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

417Total Passes379

347Accurate Passes310

83%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

5Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides2

Segunda División: Mirandes 0–1 Huesca

Huesca beat Mirandes 1-0 in Segunda División on November 13, 2021.

Goals: Marc Mateu (68').

Mirandes controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Anduva in Miranda de Ebro.

Mirandes vs Huesca — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Mirandes 0–1 Huesca