Mirandes 2–0 Huesca: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Huesca

Antonio Sánchez 76'

Martín Merquelanz 60'

12/14/2019

Segunda División · Round 20Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Mirandes41%

×Draw24%

Huesca35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchHuesca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.48

Mirandes

1.63

Huesca

1.48

Mirandes creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.23

creates per match

1.54

1.43

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Mirandes

1.23

Huesca

1.54

allows per match

Mirandes

1.43

Huesca

2.03

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Mirandes+0.15scores more

Huesca-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Huesca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

65%

Mirandes or Huesca

76%

Draw or Huesca

59%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

21%

Huesca wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

80%

Mirandes 2+ goals

48%

Mirandes 3+ goals

22%

Huesca 1+ goals

77%

Huesca 2+ goals

43%

Huesca 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

54%

Huesca (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 8 matches

Huesca away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.03 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.23 + Huesca defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.63

Huesca attack 1.54 + Mirandes defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mirandes scores more

41%

level

24%

Huesca scores more

35%

Mirandes at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Martín Merquelanz

Mirandes · M

8.2

Match Events

24'

Alexander González

48'

Juan Carlos

60'

Martín Merquelanz↳ Maranhão

62'

Ivi López← Juan Carlos

62'

S. Okazaki← Cristo González

65'

Ivi

69'

Mickael Malsa

73'

Andrés Mohedano← M. Malsa

76'

Antonio Sánchez↳ Martín Merquelanz

77'

Sergio Gómez← Mikel Rico

80'

Mario Barco← Maranhão

85'

C. González← A. González

86'

Álvaro Rey

89'

Dani Escriche

90'

Miguelón

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesHuesca

Overview

43%Possession57%

8Total Shots10

5Corners7

20Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots10

7On Target3

1Off Target4

0Blocked3

7Inside Box6

1Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

324Total Passes420

240Accurate Passes322

74%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

20Fouls11

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Huesca

Mirandes beat Huesca 2-0 in Segunda División on December 14, 2019.

Goals: Martín Merquelanz (60'), Antonio Sánchez (76').

Huesca controlled possession (57%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Anduva in Miranda de Ebro.

Mirandes vs Huesca — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Huesca