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Mirandes vs Eibar — Segunda División 2018

Mirandes
Mirandes
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Eibar
Eibar
Brugui 90'
Iñigo Vicente 72' (pen)
Simón Moreno 8'
Edu Expósito 53'
José Corpas 37' (pen)
Stoichkov 32'
10/9/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 9Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Mirandes41%
×Draw27%
Eibar32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirandes
1.34
Eibar
1.14

Mirandes creates 18% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Mirandes
1.23
Eibar
0.84

allows per match

Mirandes
1.43
Eibar
1.46

finishing

Mirandes+0.15scores more
Eibar+0.05on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Eibar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw
68%
Mirandes or Eibar
73%
Draw or Eibar
59%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+
19%
Eibar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals
74%
Mirandes 2+ goals
39%
Mirandes 3+ goals
15%
Eibar 1+ goals
68%
Eibar 2+ goals
32%
Eibar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)
57%
Eibar (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 8 matches

Eibar away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.46 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.23 + Eibar defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.34

Eibar attack 0.84 + Mirandes defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mirandes scores more
41%
level
27%
Eibar scores more
32%

Mirandes at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Iñigo VicenteMirandesMirandes · F
8.6

Match Events

8'
Simón Moreno↳ Iñigo Vicente
32'
Stoichkov
35'
Álvaro TejeroPenalty awarded
37'
José CorpasPenalty
53'
Edu Expósito↳ Stoichkov
55'
Stoichkov
63'
H. Hassan← César Gelabert
70'
Simón MorenoPenalty awarded
71'
Antonio Cristian← Rober Correa
72'
Iñigo VicentePenalty
74'
Alejandro Marqués← Sergio Camello
75'
Rodrigo Riquelme← Rementeria
76'
Óscar Sielva← Stoichkov
83'
Brugui← Iago López
83'
F. Feuillassier← José Corpas
90'
Brugui↳ Rodrigo Riquelme

Possession

50%Mirandes

Shots

11Mirandes

Pass accuracy

50%Mirandes

Statistics

MirandesEibar
Overview
50%Possession50%
11Total Shots22
2Corners7
13Fouls16
Shots
11Total Shots22
6On Target12
4Off Target8
1Blocked2
6Inside Box17
5Outside Box5
Passing
50%Possession50%
415Total Passes429
326Accurate Passes337
79%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
9Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls16
0Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Eibar

Mirandes and Eibar drew 3-3 in Segunda División on October 9, 2021.

Goals: Simón Moreno (8'), Stoichkov (32'), José Corpas (37' pen), Edu Expósito (53'), Iñigo Vicente (72' pen), Brugui (90').

Mirandes controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 22.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Anduva in Miranda de Ebro.