Mirandes 2–1 Burgos: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Burgos

Raúl García 59', 50'

Curro Sánchez 48'

4/23/2023

Segunda División · Round 37Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Mirandes35%

×Draw29%

Burgos36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchBurgos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.15

Mirandes

1.12

Burgos

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.23

creates per match

0.87

1.43

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Mirandes

1.23

Burgos

0.87

allows per match

Mirandes

1.43

Burgos

1.01

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Mirandes+0.15scores more

Burgos+0.33scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Burgos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

64%

Mirandes or Burgos

71%

Draw or Burgos

65%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

14%

Burgos wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

67%

Mirandes 2+ goals

31%

Mirandes 3+ goals

10%

Burgos 1+ goals

68%

Burgos 2+ goals

32%

Burgos 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

49%

Burgos (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 8 matches

Burgos away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.01 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.23 + Burgos defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.12

Burgos attack 0.87 + Mirandes defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Mirandes scores more

35%

level

29%

Burgos scores more

36%

Burgos at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Raúl García

Mirandes · F

8.3

Match Events

32'

Álex Bermejo Escribano

35'

37'

45+2'

45+1'

46'

N. Michelis← Beñat Prados

48'

Curro Sánchez↳ Sergio Castel

50'

Raúl García↳ Óscar Pinchi

59'

Raúl García↳ Juanlu Sánchez

64'

Juanlu Sánchez

66'

Juan Hernández← Míchel Zabaco

66'

Fran García← José Matos

75'

César Gelabert← Roberto López

75'

David Vicente← Juanlu Sánchez

77'

Pablo Valcarce← Álex Bermejo

77'

Mourad← Sergio Castel

82'

Jofre Carreras← Óscar Pinchi

85'

Marino Illescas← Miki Muñoz

87'

Álvaro Sanz Catalán

90'

Curro

90+1'

Raúl Navas← Álvaro Sanz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesBurgos

Overview

61%Possession39%

8Total Shots6

2Corners1

10Fouls22

Shots

8Total Shots6

4On Target1

2Off Target5

2Blocked0

5Inside Box1

3Outside Box5

Passing

61%Possession39%

527Total Passes329

428Accurate Passes233

81%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls22

4Yellow Cards4

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Burgos

Mirandes beat Burgos 2-1 in Segunda División on April 23, 2023.

Goals: Curro Sánchez (48'), Raúl García (50', 59').

Mirandes controlled possession (61%) and registered 8 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Anduva in Miranda de Ebro.

Mirandes vs Burgos — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Burgos