Mirandes 2–2 Alcorcon: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Alcorcon

Matheus Barrozo 26'

Álvaro Rey 3' (pen)

Rui Costa 90+4'

Stoichkov 37' (pen)

9/20/2019

Segunda División · Round 7Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Mirandes45%

×Draw27%

Alcorcon28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchAlcorcon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.01

Mirandes

1.37

Alcorcon

1.01

Mirandes creates 36% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 109 away

1.42

creates per match

0.91

1.11

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Mirandes

1.42

Alcorcon

0.91

allows per match

Mirandes

1.11

Alcorcon

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par

Alcorcon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Alcorcon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

72%

Mirandes or Alcorcon

73%

Draw or Alcorcon

55%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

21%

Alcorcon wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

75%

Mirandes 2+ goals

40%

Mirandes 3+ goals

16%

Alcorcon 1+ goals

64%

Alcorcon 2+ goals

27%

Alcorcon 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

62%

Alcorcon (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 150 matches

Alcorcon away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + Alcorcon defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.37

Alcorcon attack 0.91 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mirandes scores more

45%

level

27%

Alcorcon scores more

28%

Mirandes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Álvaro Rey

Mirandes · M

7.7

Match Events

3'

Álvaro ReyPenalty

26'

Matheus Barrozo↳ Limones

32'

S. Sosa← Laure

37'

StoichkovPenalty

42'

Limones

45'

Álvaro Rey

56'

Jon Guridi← Álvaro Peña

59'

J. Harper← R. Boateng

62'

Albert Dorca

70'

Mario Barco← Matheus Barrozo

74'

Jon Guridi

76'

Rui Costa← Ernesto Gómez

80'

Andrés Mohedano← M. Malsa

83'

Carlos Pomares Rayo

87'

Bernardo

90'

Stoichkov

90+4'

Rui Costa↳ Paris Adot

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesAlcorcon

Overview

42%Possession58%

16Total Shots9

7Corners3

20Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots9

4On Target2

9Off Target3

3Blocked4

8Inside Box4

8Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

306Total Passes433

185Accurate Passes301

60%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

20Fouls8

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides3

Segunda División: Mirandes 2–2 Alcorcon

Mirandes and Alcorcon drew 2-2 in Segunda División on September 20, 2019.

Goals: Álvaro Rey (3' pen), Matheus Barrozo (26'), Stoichkov (37' pen), Rui Costa (90+4').

Alcorcon controlled possession (58%) and registered 9 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Anduva in Miranda de Ebro.

Mirandes vs Alcorcon — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Mirandes 2–2 Alcorcon