Mirandes 0–2 Albacete: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Albacete

Álvaro Peña 42'

P. Diamanka 32'

12/21/2020

Segunda División · Round 19Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Mirandes31%

×Draw25%

Albacete44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchAlbacete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.51

Mirandes

1.23

Albacete

1.51

Albacete creates 23% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.23

creates per match

1.59

1.43

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Mirandes

1.23

Albacete

1.59

allows per match

Mirandes

1.43

Albacete

1.24

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.76scores less than expected

finishing

Mirandes+0.15scores more

Albacete-0.76scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Albacete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

56%

Mirandes or Albacete

75%

Draw or Albacete

69%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

13%

Albacete wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

71%

Mirandes 2+ goals

35%

Mirandes 3+ goals

13%

Albacete 1+ goals

78%

Albacete 2+ goals

44%

Albacete 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

41%

Albacete (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 8 matches

Albacete away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.24 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.23 + Albacete defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Albacete attack 1.59 + Mirandes defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mirandes scores more

31%

level

25%

Albacete scores more

44%

Albacete at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

N. Gorosito

Albacete · D

7.5

Match Events

32'

P. Diamanka↳ Diego Caballo

42'

46'

56'

69'

70'

73'

M. Ezzarfani← N. Djouahra

73'

Fran García← Diego Caballo

75'

J. Sepp Mvondo← E. İsrafilov

81'

Pablo Martínez← Ricardo Schutte

81'

Sergio Moreno← Víctor Meseguer

82'

Javier Muñoz

85'

Mario Barco← Pacheco

87'

Nahuel Arroyo← Manu Fuster

87'

Diego Vargas← Álvaro Peña

90'

Alfredo Ortuño

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesAlbacete

Overview

65%Possession35%

11Total Shots8

4Corners4

7Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots8

1On Target2

7Off Target3

3Blocked3

6Inside Box6

5Outside Box2

Passing

65%Possession35%

480Total Passes255

390Accurate Passes161

81%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3