Mirandes 1–1 Albacete: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Albacete

Mario Barco 26'

Dani Ojeda 13'

2/16/2020

Segunda División · Round 28Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Mirandes31%

×Draw25%

Albacete44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchAlbacete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.51

Mirandes

1.23

Albacete

1.51

Albacete creates 23% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.23

creates per match

1.59

1.43

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Mirandes

1.23

Albacete

1.59

allows per match

Mirandes

1.43

Albacete

1.24

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.76scores less than expected

finishing

Mirandes+0.15scores more

Albacete-0.76scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Albacete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

56%

Mirandes or Albacete

75%

Draw or Albacete

69%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

13%

Albacete wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

71%

Mirandes 2+ goals

35%

Mirandes 3+ goals

13%

Albacete 1+ goals

78%

Albacete 2+ goals

44%

Albacete 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

41%

Albacete (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 8 matches

Albacete away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.24 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.23 + Albacete defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Albacete attack 1.59 + Mirandes defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mirandes scores more

31%

level

25%

Albacete scores more

44%

Albacete at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Mario Barco

Mirandes · F

7.5

Match Events

12'

Mario Barco Vila

13'

Dani Ojeda↳ Manu Fuster

22'

Jon Erice

26'

Mario Barco↳ Martín Merquelanz

29'

Manuel Fuster

32'

Ivan Kecojevic

42'

Pedro

46'

Iñigo Vicente← Martín Merquelanz

49'

Jon Guridi

56'

David Querol← J. Acuña

61'

Diego Caballo

65'

Álvaro Arroyo

68'

Matheus Barrozo← Mario Barco

68'

José Caro← Manu Fuster

74'

Sergio Sánchez

76'

Marcos de Sousa

84'

E. Ohemeng← Joaquín Muñoz

84'

K. Azamoum← Jon Erice

90'

Kijera

90'

Ernest Ohemeng

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesAlbacete

Overview

60%Possession40%

9Total Shots11

2Corners4

17Fouls20

Shots

9Total Shots11

2On Target5

3Off Target6

4Blocked0

6Inside Box6

3Outside Box5

Passing

60%Possession40%

388Total Passes240

287Accurate Passes141

74%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls20

4Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards1

1Offsides4