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Miramar vs La Luz — Segunda División 2026

Miramar
Miramar
PST
22:30
La Luz
La Luz
7/19/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 11Parque Palermo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Miramar47%
×Draw29%
La Luz24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miramar
1.29
La Luz
0.84

Miramar creates 54% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 41 away

creates per match

Miramar
1.27
La Luz
0.63

allows per match

Miramar
1.05
La Luz
1.32

finishing

Miramar+0.00on par
La Luz+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miramar ↓

La Luz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Miramar or draw
76%
Miramar or La Luz
71%
Draw or La Luz
53%

Winning margin

Miramar wins by 2+
22%
La Luz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Miramar 1+ goals
72%
Miramar 2+ goals
37%
Miramar 3+ goals
14%
La Luz 1+ goals
57%
La Luz 2+ goals
21%
La Luz 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Miramar (draw refunded)
66%
La Luz (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miramar at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.05 · 37 matches

La Luz away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.32 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miramar attack 1.27 + La Luz defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

La Luz attack 0.63 + Miramar defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Miramar scores more
47%
level
29%
La Luz scores more
24%

Miramar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Miramar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Miramar vs La Luz — Match Preview

Miramar face La Luz on July 19, 2026 in this Segunda División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Miramar host La Luz at Parque Palermo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.