Minnesota United FC 1–1 San Jose Earthquakes

Minnesota United FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

San Jose Earthquakes

T. Pukki 56'

P. Marie 82'

10/1/2023

Major League Soccer · Round 46Allianz Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Minnesota United FC49%

×Draw24%

San Jose Earthquakes28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Minnesota United FCExpected goals in this matchSan Jose Earthquakes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.23

Minnesota United FC

1.71

San Jose Earthquakes

1.23

Minnesota United FC creates 39% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 50 away

1.67

creates per match

1.32

1.13

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Minnesota United FC

1.67

San Jose Earthquakes

1.32

allows per match

Minnesota United FC

1.13

San Jose Earthquakes

1.75

-0.08on par

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Minnesota United FC-0.08on par

San Jose Earthquakes+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minnesota United FC ↓

San Jose Earthquakes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Minnesota United FC or draw

72%

Minnesota United FC or San Jose Earthquakes

76%

Draw or San Jose Earthquakes

51%

Winning margin

Minnesota United FC wins by 2+

26%

San Jose Earthquakes wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Minnesota United FC 1+ goals

82%

Minnesota United FC 2+ goals

51%

Minnesota United FC 3+ goals

24%

San Jose Earthquakes 1+ goals

71%

San Jose Earthquakes 2+ goals

35%

San Jose Earthquakes 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Minnesota United FC (draw refunded)

64%

San Jose Earthquakes (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minnesota United FC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.13 · 34 matches

San Jose Earthquakes away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.75 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minnesota United FC attack 1.67 + San Jose Earthquakes defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

San Jose Earthquakes attack 1.32 + Minnesota United FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Minnesota United FC scores more

49%

level

24%

San Jose Earthquakes scores more

28%

Minnesota United FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Minnesota United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Espinoza

San Jose Earthquakes · M

8.2

Match Events

46'

F. Fragapane← D. Taylor

56'

T. Pukki

60'

C. Cowell← Jamiro Monteiro

60'

C. Gruezo← N. Tsakiris

61'

P. Marie← M. Trauco

70'

K. Arriaga← J. Greguš

75'

J. Skahan← J. Ebobisse

76'

Z. Valentín← E. Reynoso

82'

P. Marie↳ C. Espinoza

85'

Jeong Sang-Bin← W. Trapp

85'

D. Padelford← E. Bristow

85'

J. Mensah← M. Hoppe

90+1'

Kervin Arriaga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MinnesotaSan

Overview

51%Possession49%

14Total Shots14

1.46Expected Goals (xG)1.46

4Corners7

6Fouls6

Shots

14Total Shots14

2On Target2

10Off Target8

2Blocked4

9Inside Box8

5Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

430Total Passes422

360Accurate Passes339

84%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides4