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Start vs Sogndal — Eliteserien 2026

Start
Start
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sogndal
Sogndal
L. Salvesen 89'
H. Furebotn 7'
8/21/2016EliteserienEliteserien · Round 21Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Start47%
×Draw24%
Sogndal29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start
1.67
Sogndal
1.27

Start creates 31% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 8 away

creates per match

Start
1.22
Sogndal
1.13

allows per match

Start
1.42
Sogndal
2.13

finishing

Start+0.00on par
Sogndal+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

Sogndal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Start or draw
71%
Start or Sogndal
76%
Draw or Sogndal
53%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+
25%
Sogndal wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals
81%
Start 2+ goals
50%
Start 3+ goals
23%
Sogndal 1+ goals
72%
Sogndal 2+ goals
36%
Sogndal 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)
62%
Sogndal (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

Sogndal away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 1.22 + Sogndal defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sogndal attack 1.13 + Start defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Start scores more
47%
level
24%
Sogndal scores more
29%

Start at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
H. FurebotnSogndalSogndal · M
7.4

Match Events

7'
H. Furebotn↳ G. Koomson
13'
Espen Børufsen
44'
K. Opseth← O. Sveen
46'
M. Pedersen← T. Teniste
55'
Magnus Pedersen
70'
L. Salvesen← J. Bojang
80'
Jukka Raitala
82'
Dulee Johnson
83'
R. Sandnes← A. Hollingen
88'
E. Hoff← D. Antwi
89'
L. Salvesen↳ R. Sandnes
90+1'
B. Utvik← M. Ramsland

Possession

57%Start

Shots

10Start

Pass accuracy

53%Start

Statistics

StartSogndal
Overview
57%Possession43%
10Total Shots15
4Corners3
14Fouls16
Shots
10Total Shots15
3On Target6
4Off Target6
3Blocked3
5Inside Box7
5Outside Box8
Passing
57%Possession43%
392Total Passes304
278Accurate Passes191
71%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
5Offsides0

Match Recap: Start vs Sogndal

Start and Sogndal drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on August 21, 2016.

Goals: H. Furebotn (7'), L. Salvesen (89').

Start controlled possession (57%) and registered 10 shots to 15.

The match was played at Sør Arena in Kristiansand.