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Al Ain vs Baniyas SC — League #302 2026

Al Ain
Al Ain
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Baniyas SC
Baniyas SCadvanced
Haboush Saleh Habou 68'
12/28/2018League #302League #302 · Quarter-finalsTahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium (Al-'Ayn (Al Ain))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al Ain43%
×Draw23%
Baniyas SC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ain
1.80
Baniyas SC
1.60

Al Ain creates 13% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Al Ain
2.00
Baniyas SC
1.20

allows per match

Al Ain
2.00
Baniyas SC
1.60

finishing

Al Ain+0.00on par
Baniyas SC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ain ↓

Baniyas SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Al Ain or draw
65%
Al Ain or Baniyas SC
77%
Draw or Baniyas SC
57%

Winning margin

Al Ain wins by 2+
23%
Baniyas SC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Al Ain 1+ goals
83%
Al Ain 2+ goals
54%
Al Ain 3+ goals
27%
Baniyas SC 1+ goals
80%
Baniyas SC 2+ goals
47%
Baniyas SC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Al Ain (draw refunded)
55%
Baniyas SC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ain at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Baniyas SC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ain attack 2.00 + Baniyas SC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Baniyas SC attack 1.20 + Al Ain defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Ain scores more
43%
level
23%
Baniyas SC scores more
35%

Al Ain at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Ain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
Falah Waleed← Saeed Juma Hassan
46'
Ali Mohammed← Mohammed Khalfan
46'
M. Ortega← Mohd Kamaas Almenhali
46'
Suhail Ahmed Al Noobi← Ali Awana Almessabi
68'
Hazem Fayez← Jamal Maroof
68'
Haboush Saleh Habou↳ Pedro Conde
88'
Ahmed Al Shamisi← L. George

League #302: Al Ain 0–1 Baniyas SC

Baniyas SC beat Al Ain 1-0 in League #302 on December 28, 2018.

Goals: Haboush Saleh Habou (68').

The match was played at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium (Al-'Ayn (Al Ain)).