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Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba — League #301 2026

Al-Dhafra
Al-Dhafra
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Myke Ramos 90+1'
B. Dzsudzsák 73' (pen)
9/21/2018League #301League #301 · Round 3Hamdan bin Zayed Al Nahyan Stadium (Madinat Zaid)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Al-Dhafra33%
×Draw23%
Al-Ittihad Kalba44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Dhafra
1.52
Al-Ittihad Kalba
1.77

Al-Ittihad Kalba creates 16% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 7 away

creates per match

Al-Dhafra
1.17
Al-Ittihad Kalba
1.57

allows per match

Al-Dhafra
1.97
Al-Ittihad Kalba
1.86

finishing

Al-Dhafra+0.00on par
Al-Ittihad Kalba+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Dhafra ↓

Al-Ittihad Kalba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Al-Dhafra or draw
56%
Al-Dhafra or Al-Ittihad Kalba
77%
Draw or Al-Ittihad Kalba
67%

Winning margin

Al-Dhafra wins by 2+
16%
Al-Ittihad Kalba wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Al-Dhafra 1+ goals
78%
Al-Dhafra 2+ goals
45%
Al-Dhafra 3+ goals
20%
Al-Ittihad Kalba 1+ goals
83%
Al-Ittihad Kalba 2+ goals
53%
Al-Ittihad Kalba 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Al-Dhafra (draw refunded)
43%
Al-Ittihad Kalba (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Dhafra at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.97 · 35 matches

Al-Ittihad Kalba away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Dhafra attack 1.17 + Al-Ittihad Kalba defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.52

Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.57 + Al-Dhafra defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al-Dhafra scores more
33%
level
23%
Al-Ittihad Kalba scores more
44%

Al-Ittihad Kalba at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al-Ittihad Kalba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
B. Dzsudzsák← Hassan Yousuf
56'
Diego← Hamad Al Marzoqi
69'
Saeed Al Kathiri← Khalid Bawazir
73'
B. DzsudzsákPenalty
77'
Omar Ahmed Rashed← F. Matei
81'
Rashed Muhayer Saeed← Khalid Al Darmaki
83'
Shahin Surour Al Dermaki← T. Tobar
90+1'
Myke Ramos↳ Mohamed Al Bairaq

Al-Dhafra 0 – 2 Al-Ittihad Kalba

Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Al-Dhafra 2-0 in League #301 on September 21, 2018.

Goals: B. Dzsudzsák (73' pen), Myke Ramos (90+1').

The match was played at Hamdan bin Zayed Al Nahyan Stadium (Madinat Zaid).