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Minneapolis City vs West Virginia Alliance — USL League Two 2026

USL League TwoUSL League Two·2026
Minneapolis City
Minneapolis City
Preview
20:00
West Virginia Alliance
West Virginia Alliance
Date
Jul 16, 2026, 8:00 PM
Tournament
USL League Two · Round of 32
64%
Minneapolis City
model favours
64%18%18%

Minneapolis City have won 14 in a row

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
74%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Minneapolis City64%
×Draw18%
West Virginia Alliance18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minneapolis City
2.58
West Virginia Alliance
1.31

Minneapolis City creates 97% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

Minneapolis City
3.58
West Virginia Alliance
1.86

allows per match

Minneapolis City
0.75
West Virginia Alliance
1.57

finishing

Minneapolis City+0.00on par
West Virginia Alliance+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minneapolis City ↓

West Virginia Alliance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Minneapolis City or draw
82%
Minneapolis City or West Virginia Alliance
82%
Draw or West Virginia Alliance
36%

Winning margin

Minneapolis City wins by 2+
43%
West Virginia Alliance wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Minneapolis City 1+ goals
92%
Minneapolis City 2+ goals
72%
Minneapolis City 3+ goals
47%
West Virginia Alliance 1+ goals
73%
West Virginia Alliance 2+ goals
38%
West Virginia Alliance 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Minneapolis City (draw refunded)
78%
West Virginia Alliance (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minneapolis City at home — creates 3.58, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

West Virginia Alliance away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minneapolis City attack 3.58 + West Virginia Alliance defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.58

West Virginia Alliance attack 1.86 + Minneapolis City defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Minneapolis City scores more
64%
level
18%
West Virginia Alliance scores more
18%

Minneapolis City at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Minneapolis City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Minneapolis City have scored in 21 games running
  • Minneapolis City win 100% of their home games
  • 86% of Minneapolis City’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Minneapolis City sit 2, West Virginia Alliance 25 in the table
  • Minneapolis City and West Virginia Alliance have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
City
WWWWW
Alliance
LWLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Minneapolis City host West Virginia Alliance

July 16, 2026: Minneapolis City take on West Virginia Alliance in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.