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Minervén vs Bolívar — Segunda División 2018

Minervén
Minervén
PST
00:00
Bolívar
Bolívar
5/15/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 1CTE Cachamay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Minervén13%
×Draw18%
Bolívar69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minervén
0.88
Bolívar
2.30

Bolívar creates 161% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

creates per match

Minervén
0.75
Bolívar
1.35

allows per match

Minervén
3.25
Bolívar
1.00

finishing

Minervén+0.00on par
Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minervén ↓

Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–211%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Minervén or draw
31%
Minervén or Bolívar
82%
Draw or Bolívar
87%

Winning margin

Minervén wins by 2+
4%
Bolívar wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Minervén 1+ goals
59%
Minervén 2+ goals
22%
Minervén 3+ goals
6%
Bolívar 1+ goals
90%
Bolívar 2+ goals
67%
Bolívar 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Minervén (draw refunded)
16%
Bolívar (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minervén at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

Bolívar away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minervén attack 0.75 + Bolívar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Bolívar attack 1.35 + Minervén defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Minervén scores more
13%
level
18%
Bolívar scores more
69%

Bolívar at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Minervén host Bolívar

May 15, 2021: Minervén take on Bolívar in Segunda División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Minervén host Bolívar at CTE Cachamay.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.