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Minerva Punjab vs Chennaiyin — AFC Cup 2018

Minerva Punjab
Minerva Punjab
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chennaiyin
Chennaiyin
6/19/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Indira Gandhi Athletic Stadium (Guwahati)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Minerva Punjab33%
×Draw26%
Chennaiyin41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minerva Punjab
1.25
Chennaiyin
1.42

Chennaiyin creates 14% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Minerva Punjab
1.00
Chennaiyin
1.50

allows per match

Minerva Punjab
1.33
Chennaiyin
1.50

finishing

Minerva Punjab+0.00on par
Chennaiyin+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minerva Punjab ↓

Chennaiyin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Minerva Punjab or draw
59%
Minerva Punjab or Chennaiyin
74%
Draw or Chennaiyin
67%

Winning margin

Minerva Punjab wins by 2+
14%
Chennaiyin wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Minerva Punjab 1+ goals
71%
Minerva Punjab 2+ goals
36%
Minerva Punjab 3+ goals
13%
Chennaiyin 1+ goals
76%
Chennaiyin 2+ goals
41%
Chennaiyin 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Minerva Punjab (draw refunded)
45%
Chennaiyin (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minerva Punjab at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Chennaiyin away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minerva Punjab attack 1.00 + Chennaiyin defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Chennaiyin attack 1.50 + Minerva Punjab defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Minerva Punjab scores more
33%
level
26%
Chennaiyin scores more
41%

Chennaiyin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chennaiyin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Minerva Punjab vs Chennaiyin

Minerva Punjab and Chennaiyin drew 1-1 in AFC Cup on June 19, 2019.

The match was played at Indira Gandhi Athletic Stadium (Guwahati).