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Mineros de Zacatecas vs Tampico Madero — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tampico Madero
Tampico Madero
8/10/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 2Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba (Zacatecas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Mineros de Zacatecas48%
×Draw27%
Tampico Madero26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mineros de Zacatecas
1.45
Tampico Madero
0.99

Mineros de Zacatecas creates 46% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 64 away

creates per match

Mineros de Zacatecas
1.73
Tampico Madero
0.91

allows per match

Mineros de Zacatecas
1.06
Tampico Madero
1.17

finishing

Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par
Tampico Madero+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mineros de Zacatecas ↓

Tampico Madero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mineros de Zacatecas or draw
74%
Mineros de Zacatecas or Tampico Madero
73%
Draw or Tampico Madero
52%

Winning margin

Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+
24%
Tampico Madero wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals
77%
Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals
42%
Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals
18%
Tampico Madero 1+ goals
63%
Tampico Madero 2+ goals
26%
Tampico Madero 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)
65%
Tampico Madero (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mineros de Zacatecas at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.06 · 136 matches

Tampico Madero away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.73 + Tampico Madero defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.45

Tampico Madero attack 0.91 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mineros de Zacatecas scores more
48%
level
27%
Tampico Madero scores more
26%

Mineros de Zacatecas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mineros de Zacatecas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Mineros de Zacatecas 0–2 Tampico Madero

Tampico Madero beat Mineros de Zacatecas 2-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba (Zacatecas).