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Mineros de Zacatecas vs Monarcas — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas
Preview
01:00
Monarcas
Monarcas
9/13/2026Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 8Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba
Big match
49%
Mineros de Zacatecas
model favours
49%25%26%

Monarcas score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Mineros de Zacatecas49%
×Draw25%
Monarcas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mineros de Zacatecas
1.57
Monarcas
1.08

Mineros de Zacatecas creates 45% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 108 away

creates per match

Mineros de Zacatecas
1.73
Monarcas
1.11

allows per match

Mineros de Zacatecas
1.06
Monarcas
1.41

finishing

Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par
Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mineros de Zacatecas ↓

Monarcas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mineros de Zacatecas or draw
74%
Mineros de Zacatecas or Monarcas
75%
Draw or Monarcas
51%

Winning margin

Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+
25%
Monarcas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals
79%
Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals
46%
Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals
21%
Monarcas 1+ goals
66%
Monarcas 2+ goals
29%
Monarcas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)
65%
Monarcas (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mineros de Zacatecas at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.06 · 136 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.73 + Monarcas defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.57

Monarcas attack 1.11 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mineros de Zacatecas scores more
49%
level
25%
Monarcas scores more
26%

Mineros de Zacatecas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mineros de Zacatecas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Monarcas win just 14% of their away games
  • Both teams score in only 31% of Mineros de Zacatecas’s matches
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Monarcas’s matches
  • Mineros de Zacatecas win just 39% against the top half (vs 67% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Zacatecas
LLLDD
Monarcas
DLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineros de Zacatecas face Monarcas (Liga de Expansión MX)

Liga de Expansión MX returns with Mineros de Zacatecas hosting Monarcas. Match starts September 13, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Mineros de Zacatecas host Monarcas at Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.