Mineros de Zacatecas 1–0 Cancún: Result & Stats

Mineros de Zacatecas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cancún

11/24/2023

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - Semi-finalsEstadio Carlos Vega Villalba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Mineros de Zacatecas50%

×Draw25%

Cancún24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mineros de ZacatecasExpected goals in this matchCancún

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.00

Mineros de Zacatecas

1.56

Cancún

1.00

Mineros de Zacatecas creates 56% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 99 away

1.75

creates per match

0.92

1.07

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Mineros de Zacatecas

1.75

Cancún

0.92

allows per match

Mineros de Zacatecas

1.07

Cancún

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par

Cancún+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mineros de Zacatecas ↓

Cancún →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mineros de Zacatecas or draw

76%

Mineros de Zacatecas or Cancún

75%

Draw or Cancún

50%

Winning margin

Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+

26%

Cancún wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals

79%

Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals

46%

Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals

21%

Cancún 1+ goals

63%

Cancún 2+ goals

26%

Cancún 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)

67%

Cancún (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mineros de Zacatecas at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.07 · 138 matches

Cancún away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.75 + Cancún defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cancún attack 0.92 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mineros de Zacatecas scores more

50%

level

25%

Cancún scores more

24%

Mineros de Zacatecas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mineros de Zacatecas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff