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Milsami Orhei vs Sheriff Tiraspol — Cupa 2020

Milsami Orhei
Milsami Orhei
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspoladvanced
5/24/2025CupaCupa · FinalBolshaya Sportivnaya Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Milsami Orhei38%
×Draw24%
Sheriff Tiraspol38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milsami Orhei
1.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Milsami Orhei
2.45
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00

allows per match

Milsami Orhei
1.09
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.67

finishing

Milsami Orhei+0.00on par
Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milsami Orhei ↓

Sheriff Tiraspol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Milsami Orhei or draw
62%
Milsami Orhei or Sheriff Tiraspol
76%
Draw or Sheriff Tiraspol
62%

Winning margin

Milsami Orhei wins by 2+
19%
Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Milsami Orhei 1+ goals
79%
Milsami Orhei 2+ goals
46%
Milsami Orhei 3+ goals
21%
Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals
79%
Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals
45%
Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Milsami Orhei (draw refunded)
51%
Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milsami Orhei at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Sheriff Tiraspol away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milsami Orhei attack 2.45 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 2.00 + Milsami Orhei defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Milsami Orhei scores more
38%
level
24%
Sheriff Tiraspol scores more
38%

Milsami Orhei at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Milsami Orhei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: Milsami Orhei 1–2 Sheriff Tiraspol

Sheriff Tiraspol beat Milsami Orhei 2-1 in Cupa on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Bolshaya Sportivnaya Arena in Tiraspol.