Milsami Orhei 0–0 Codru Lozova: Result & Stats

Milsami Orhei

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Codru Lozova

5/11/2019

Super Liga · Round 9Complexul Sportiv Raional (Orhei)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Milsami Orhei72%

×Draw17%

Codru Lozova10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milsami OrheiExpected goals in this matchCodru Lozova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

0.72

Milsami Orhei

2.27

Codru Lozova

0.72

Milsami Orhei creates 215% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 30 away

1.66

creates per match

0.47

0.98

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Milsami Orhei

1.66

Codru Lozova

0.47

allows per match

Milsami Orhei

0.98

Codru Lozova

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milsami Orhei+0.00on par

Codru Lozova+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milsami Orhei ↓

Codru Lozova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Milsami Orhei or draw

90%

Milsami Orhei or Codru Lozova

83%

Draw or Codru Lozova

28%

Winning margin

Milsami Orhei wins by 2+

48%

Codru Lozova wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Milsami Orhei 1+ goals

90%

Milsami Orhei 2+ goals

66%

Milsami Orhei 3+ goals

39%

Codru Lozova 1+ goals

51%

Codru Lozova 2+ goals

16%

Codru Lozova 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Milsami Orhei (draw refunded)

87%

Codru Lozova (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milsami Orhei at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.98 · 97 matches

Codru Lozova away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milsami Orhei attack 1.66 + Codru Lozova defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.27

Codru Lozova attack 0.47 + Milsami Orhei defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Milsami Orhei scores more

72%

level

17%

Codru Lozova scores more

10%

Milsami Orhei at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Milsami Orhei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

G. Andronic← A. Pătraş

67'

M. Antoniuc← G. Ba

70'

Maxim Cojocaru II← M. Apostol

75'

D. Ciobanu← A. Onica

90'

B. Stoianov← D. Janu

Milsami

Codru

25

2

11

30

28

10

▼

Janu

73

▼

99

3

97

19

50

4

22

2

25

▼

Ba

16

Antoniuc

24

▼

Onica

8

▼

5

7

13

Manager: V. Rusnac

46'▲G. Andronic←▼A. Pătraş

67'▲M. Antoniuc←▼G. Ba

75'▲D. Ciobanu←▼A. Onica

Milsami Orhei substitutes

10Andronic9Antoniuc11Ciobanu14Rusnac18Koblov26Zagaevschii21Butuc

Manager: V. Andronic

70'▲Maxim Cojocaru II←▼M. Apostol

90'▲B. Stoianov←▼D. Janu

Codru Lozova substitutes

44II90Stoianov5Rusu6Ţîbuleac7Adam4Drab