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Millwall vs Swansea — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Swansea
Swansea
M. Kukharevych 79'
M. Grimes 57'
J. Lowe 23' (pen)
9/30/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 9The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

Millwall43%
×Draw27%
Swansea29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.36
Swansea
1.07

Millwall creates 27% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 55 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.25
Swansea
1.10

allows per match

Millwall
1.04
Swansea
1.48

finishing

Millwall-0.09on par
Swansea-0.03on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
71%
Millwall or Swansea
73%
Draw or Swansea
57%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
20%
Swansea wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
74%
Millwall 2+ goals
39%
Millwall 3+ goals
16%
Swansea 1+ goals
66%
Swansea 2+ goals
29%
Swansea 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
60%
Swansea (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.04 · 63 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.25 + Swansea defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Swansea attack 1.10 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Millwall scores more
43%
level
27%
Swansea scores more
29%

Millwall at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
B. HumphreysSwanseaSwansea · D
7.9

Match Events

22'
Jake Cooper
23'
J. LowePenalty
45+3'
Ryan Longman
46'
R. Esse← B. Norton-Cuffy
46'
J. Bryan← R. Longman
46'
M. Kukharevych← J. Yates
57'
M. Grimes↳ J. Paterson
63'
J. Tymon← J. Paterson
66'
Carl Rushworth
70'
A. Emakhu← A. Campbell
70'
J. Fulton← C. Patino
73'
Ben Cabango
78'
O. Cooper← L. Cullen
79'
M. Kukharevych↳ J. Key
80'
D. McNamara← M. Wallace
80'
G. Saville← Z. Flemming

Possession

50%Millwall

Shots

22Millwall

Pass accuracy

50%Millwall

Statistics

MillwallSwansea
Overview
50%Possession50%
22Total Shots7
1.39Expected Goals (xG)1.20
6Corners0
18Fouls10
Shots
22Total Shots7
5On Target5
7Off Target2
10Blocked0
11Inside Box5
11Outside Box2
Passing
50%Possession50%
496Total Passes525
401Accurate Passes427
81%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
18Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Millwall vs Swansea

Swansea beat Millwall 3-0 in Championship on September 30, 2023.

Goals: J. Lowe (23' pen), M. Grimes (57'), M. Kukharevych (79').

Millwall controlled possession (50%) and registered 22 shots to 7.

The match was played at The Den in London.